More than one in eight voters shifted their intentions in the final week of the federal election campaign, a study has found.
The Voter Choice Project, led by election analyst RK Crosby, was a panel study involving multiple waves of surveys delivered to the same people.
The panel included 2482 verified voters when the election was called, covering all 151 electorates with a proportional balance across the states and territories.
While published opinion polls pointed to a narrow win to Labor, the Voter Choice Project found 13 per cent of voters shifted in the final week with the biggest beneficiary being the Liberal-National coalition.
When it came to the reasons for voting, the “switching” voters mainly made up their minds not on the basis of policy or political party but that a candidate was the “best option” or the “best of a bad lot”, the study’s leader said.
However, digging deeper into the data, the study found economic and tax issues – including Labor’s controversial franking credits policy – as well as “values” had the most impact in getting people to vote against their incumbent Labor jual besi beton semarang MP and for the coalition.
“By contrast, ‘ideological reasons’ were reinforcing votes in seats already held by the coalition, rather than influencing voters in Labor-held seats,” Ms Crosby said.
“In Labor’s favour, 100 per cent of those voting for a ‘vision for the country’ ended up in their column.”
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, armed with a $60 million advertising budget, picked up most of its support in the final fortnight of the campaign largely from protest voters, the study found.
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